Water AlliesTier 1
at MRC Massachusetts Regionals
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1210
· median 1153
· range 1137–1340
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1162
Q3 1329
1656
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.5% | -10.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
